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1/2 Through the Season...Is UFA Worth It? (Part 2)

By Adam Harris

Each year the league's collective hopes raise to new heights as UFA sweeps our attention. But most years, the allure of signing a big piece without giving up compensation leads to few wins in the short-term and long-term cap headaches.


This article looks at this year's class of phase B free agents one-third of the way through the season. Is the reward worth the cost?


WINNERS:

Jakub Kindl - Los Angeles - 2 years, $6 million per season
Desperation for defense is always the vice of free agency, and Los Angeles paid a steep price. But for a young team itching for the playoffs with few big contracts, this contract was worth considering. What has transpired is a career offensive season for Kindl who is on pace to score 46 points. While the Kings still sit outside the playoffs looking in, the short-term value paid off for LA and they will see Kindl rerate up for year two of the deal.

Corey Perry - Las Vegas - 2 years, $9 million AAV
In general, this is a dog of a contract that I hate seeing teams give out. However Vegas is a unique circumstance with no salary commitments going into FA and a desire to compete. Perry is having a bounce back season and on pace for more than 60 points, suggesting he will play both years of this deal as a star level talent. While I don't condone the contract, the relative value exists in this circumstance. 

Andrew Ladd - New Jersey - 2 years, $6.95 million per year
A bounce back season for Ladd leads one to think he will retain his value making him play next year as 78/79 on a 1 year $6.95 million deal. The Devils can't seem to get over the hump so one must ask if Ladd will have more value than the $11 million that New Jersey will have paid him in salary. I think the trend line suggests he could pick up a future 1 for Ladd at next year's deadline, and with little hope of competing next year this sunk cost can be weathered.

LOSERS:

Ben Maxwell - Buffalo - 1 year, $6.67 million per year
This was almost guaranteed to be a loser from the jump. Maxwell is having the same success he had last year so those expectations are met, but for a franchise like Buffalo to shell out $6.67 million for a second-line level talent. While he can be flipped as a rental, I think the construction of this team was made to be more competitive than they've been - and one has to wonder whether the opportunity cost of paying Maxwell this much money led to their lackluster season.

Gunnar Stahl - St. Louis - 3 years, $4.65 million per year
The last Mighty Duck hold out has fleeced yet another franchise. Stahl's sneaky career numbers never lined up with ratings value, but playing on good teams gave him cover. Now on a weak Blues club Stahl's inability to do anything great is being exposed. On average for 44 points, St. Louis is going to have to eat this year and next year's salary, and probably hope Stahl's demise brings him to a 75 rating by year 3 and he becomes lost on the farm. 

Denis Ezhov - Montreal - 1 year, $7.65 million per year
I rarely would put a one-year deal in a loser category but this has been a shocking season for Ezhov. After a glorious career he gets a chance at another cup, but its just not clicking in Montreal. A -11 +/- on the season and on pace for only 22 points couldn't have been what Walsh expected. One could say he is being saved for the playoffs, but Ezhov is still playing 19 minutes per game - just three less than last year where he scored 41 points and a +12 for the Islanders. In hindsight, not sure Wes doesn't put this salary cap space elsewhere as he's only getting replacement level quality from Ezhov.

Michael Ratchuk - Ottawa - 4 years, $6 million per year
The new Logan Stephenson. Ratchuk is a long-time veteran who did a number of good teams well, but this contract and this season are a disaster for Ottawa. Having a career worst year with three additional seasons attached to the deal, Ottawa may have to move assets to get Ratchuk off the books. Seven points out from the playoffs suggests the Senators wont even cash in on playoff money to help pay for the mistake.

John Carlson - Carolina - 4 years, $6.5 million per year
Desperate for defense, the Canes went fishing. In the immediate, this isn't so bad. Carlson is having a nice year and probably the only player with positive contributions to the defense, but $6.5mil for three more years is a tough pill to swallow for a guy on the downslope of his career. Like Ottawa, they are seven games out from the playoffs with a tough road to get the cash needed to get true value from the signing.

TOSS UP:
Nigel Dawes - Seattle - 1 year, $11 million per year
Dawes is having a fine season in Seattle but lets not kid ourselves, the question of this contract is whether the return at the rental period exceeds what Seattle could have acquired for $7.7 million - the approximate cash the team spent on his salary through that part of the year. If so, Dawes cashes in a huge check and gets to play for a contender, Seattle acquires assets and everyone is happy. If that doesn't pan out, this is a disaster of deal for Seattle.

12/15/2020 - 938 words


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