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1/3 Through the Season...Is UFA Worth It? (Part 1)

By Adam Harris

Each year the league's collective hopes raise to new heights as UFA sweeps our attention. But most years, the allure of signing a big piece without giving up compensation leads to few wins in the short-term and long-term cap headaches.


This article looks at this year's class of phase A free agents one-third of the way through the season. Is the reward worth the cost?

In two weeks we'll do phase B of free agents (unless someone beats me to it).

WINNERS:

Nathan Horton - Calgary - 1 year, $7.2 million
A perfect signing at a perfect amount. I think Nagle only regrets not having a second year attached. Horton is second on the Flames in scoring, and the 40-year young veteran is showing no signs of slowing down. A reasonable cap hit for his talent and no long-term commitment makes the payoff of this contract a true win-win.

Jakub Silverberg - Columbus - 4 years, $4 million per year
Columbus is in the playoff race for the first time in years, so obviously something is working. At the time I feared this would turn into a second Iafallo situation, but with the robust scoring in Columbus everyone is getting in on the action - Silverberg included. He is on pace to have by far his best ever season as a pro, and seems poised to rerate to the 78-79 range, making his $4 million salary comfortably within the expected range for a player of that status.

Jonathan Quick - Seattle - 1 year, $4.5 million
Seattle's starting goalie has stunk all season. But the true value for Seattle comes with caveats: Can Quick stay healthy enough to face 1800 shots and win the endorsement, and can he do it before the end of the trade deadline where he could bring an asset back as  rental player. He is currently on pace for both, potentially yielding Seattle an asset, $12 million endorsement, and helping Seattle not embarrass itself on the way to the cellar of the league and top of the draft. For $4.5 million in salary, that's a good deal.

LOSERS:

Gilbert Brule - Detroit - 3 years, $8.5 million per year
This is a classic free agent signing and assessment. Last year the Red Wings finished as the 8th seed, this year they are currently pegged as the 10th seed. While Brule is second on the team in scoring, he is on pace for his worst season in five years. The team is effectively operating at the cap line with no wiggle room. With less than $10 million in cash the playoffs are critically important for Detroit's long-term growth. With a ton of prospects one wonders whether using an asset to acquire a lower cost top line option and then using the extra cap to strengthen a second position wouldn't see Detroit out performing last year's point total vs currently sitting outside the top 8.

Gabriel Landeskog - Las Vegas - 7 years, $8.28 million AAV ($10-9-9-8-8-7-7)
On the good news, the Knights have their man and got him on a deal that deescalates over time. He is racking up assists and is currently on pace to have his best assist year ever. However he is also on pace to have his worst scoring year ever, by almost half. I know Corey is happy about one, but isn't paying $8.28 million for a guy who can't score. One wonders if this signing isn't being killed by Vegas spending almost half the game with four guys on the ice. This rerate doesn't bode well unless Balint knocks off some of the knuckleheads around Landeskog.

Logan Stephenson - Buffalo - 2 years, $7.25 million per year
This ridiculous overpay is hedged by only being for two years. However Buffalo's inability to stay competitive this season makes it even more egregious. Stephenson is not a viable trade candidate in any scenario, and will likely have to stay on the books until next season's trade deadline where he can be flipped as a rental. While his offensive production is consistent, his -29 swing in +/- from last year is cause for concern and one could see this 78-OV albatross becoming a 77-disaster.

Jacob DeSerres - Las Vegas - 2 years, $5.1 million per year
Bottom line: Corey miscalculated on how viable Vegas could be in year one and this deal is the perfect epitome of it. With a two year agreement, Corey boxed himself in to a bad goalie who makes too much to be sent to the farm. I think he is a candidate for re-entry waivers in the offseason to clear the salary off the books. With a 3.68 GAA and having to stand up to 25 minutes of penalties each night, DeSerres may be worth the salary just as an insurance policy.

TOSS UP:
Jakob Klepis - Carolina - 4 years, $5 million per year
Carolina is struggling but don't look at Klepis. Signed following a monster year in New York, he has proven that he is capable of competing at close to that walk year line. That said, I am concerned about his scoring dropping below his currently pedestrian 73 - setting up a scenario where he drops a point or two in rerates. At 35 those last two years could get tough.

Mat Lashoff - Seattle - 3 years, $3.33 million AAV ($4-3-3)
Mat Lashoff is in perhaps the worst situation of anyone on this list but Jonathan Quick. Offensively he is having the same year as prior seasons, but the +/- is bad and going to get worse. Seattle wisely recognized the value proposition and structured the last two years to be at $3 million salaries, so if he is not flipped at the deadline he becomes a low-cost 77 veteran dman for the last two years (presuming a 1 OV drop in rerates).



12/1/2020 - 969 words


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