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Inside the Numbers: Three Takeaways

By Adam Harris

We are nearly 60 percent through the season and have a large enough sample size to assess the league.

If one were to look for a pattern or primary indicator of success and failure in this season, you could do so by examining correlations between points and the team stats available: power play, penalty kill, goals for, goals against, shots for, and shots against.

Three takeaways underlined within.

Offense vs Defense

The statistics indicate that the overwhelmingly strongest correlation of success in the league is defense, measured as limiting goals against. A strong defense is more important than offense in producing points, but its not just having a strong goalie.

The relationship between shots allowed and goals allowed is stronger than the relationship between shots taken and goals scored. 

This correlation is also seen as there is a greater variance in goals allowed vs goals scored - meaning the values that separate each team for goals allowed is greater than the values for goals scored.

Finally, there is a greater relationship between shots allowed and goals allowed than there is between shots taken and goals scored.

Penalties

Notably, there is little independent correlation between points and power play percent, penalty kill percent or penalty minutes allowed. However, since these stats contribute to the whole, there are relevant relationships to examine between the statistics themselves.

Penalties impact offense more than defense. Of the penalty related statistics, the greatest correlation relationship is between penalty minutes and shots for. This relationship is slightly stronger than the relationship between penalty kill percent and penalty minutes allowed. 

There is also a stronger relationship between penalty kill percent and goals allowed than there is between penalty minutes allowed and goals allowed. This indicates that its important to prioritize having a strong penalty kill unit over having those who commit penalties.

Notably, there is little relationship between power play percent and goals scored or shots taken. A strong power play does not seem to have too much bearing on overall points.

12/29/2020 - 330 words


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